Division 1 & Para Championships / April NAC

Vet-40 Men's Foil

Saturday, April 25, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Greater Richmond Convention Center - Richmond, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GROSS Liran	-	-	-	6%	35%	58%
2	JAN Stephen	-	-	-	6%	28%	44%	21%
3	WOOD Alexander W.	-	-	1%	9%	36%	54%
3	SPROWLES Cameron D.	-	-	9%	39%	42%	10%
5	FULTON Rick A. Missing ID
6	JUNCO Carlos	-	-	1%	12%	36%	38%	12%
7	PAI Dong-Ying	-	-	3%	27%	70%
8	HENNIG Thomas A.	-	-	2%	19%	47%	32%
9	WILLIAMS Kenneth H.	-	4%	21%	40%	30%	5%
10	FLANAGAN James	-	-	10%	41%	36%	12%	1%
11	KOSLA Anthony M.	-	-	1%	10%	33%	40%	16%
12	GREEN Michael C.	-	5%	33%	51%	11%
13	MILLER Douglas S.	-	1%	14%	48%	32%	6%
14	PASHBY Stephen N.	-	10%	49%	33%	7%	-
15	BUCHNER William	3%	20%	39%	29%	8%	1%
16	TSINIS Alexander E.	-	1%	16%	45%	33%	5%
17	BERBERI Matt	3%	24%	53%	19%	2%	-
18	KUZMAK Michael J.	-	6%	25%	41%	24%	4%
19	RODRIGUEZ VINCENT	18%	56%	23%	2%	-	-
20	SHEYNKMAN Leon	2%	21%	50%	25%	2%
21	KREIDMAN Michael J.	-	-	1%	16%	51%	32%
22	TOMASI John	-	6%	55%	32%	6%	1%	-
23	BHATT Jay	8%	65%	24%	3%	-	-
24	GARDNER William	42%	46%	12%	1%	-
25	JEROME Trevor	59%	35%	5%	-	-	-
26	SUCHOSKI Annika	47%	40%	12%	1%	-	-
27	CHANDLEE Thomas	3%	82%	15%	1%	-	-	-
28	REARDON Patrick M.	9%	38%	38%	14%	2%	-
29	HOLCOMB Michael	86%	14%	-	-	-	-
30	BUCHANAN Jonah	29%	51%	18%	2%	-
31	CORNELIUS Daniel	97%	3%	-	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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