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Div I-A Men's Épée

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SPIER Julian H.	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	25%
2	SAITOC Tudor	-	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	6%
3	PETROLL Jared P.	-	1%	7%	22%	35%	27%	7%
3	GYURE Brayden H.	-	2%	11%	30%	35%	18%	3%
5	CUZA Yudennis	-	-	3%	13%	31%	37%	16%
6	XIAN Riley	-	3%	14%	33%	33%	14%	2%
7	BRINSFIELD Jaxon L.	-	4%	16%	32%	31%	14%	2%
8	FANNING Abe B.	1%	6%	21%	33%	27%	10%	1%
9	HURME Tommi K.	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	34%
10	ORTEGA Josue I.	-	1%	9%	27%	38%	22%	3%
11	ATANAS Matthew M.	27%	47%	21%	4%	< 1%	-
12	WILLETT Addison	-	1%	9%	24%	35%	24%	6%
13	SUVOROV Yuly	-	2%	10%	26%	35%	23%	6%
14	XIAN Ryan	1%	11%	28%	33%	20%	6%	1%
15	PLAISANCE Louis	-	3%	18%	39%	32%	8%
16	GASPAROVICH IV George M.	-	5%	19%	33%	29%	12%	2%
17	JOHNSON Ben	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
18	ORTEGA Salvador	-	3%	14%	29%	33%	17%	3%
19	DECKARD Blake B.	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	29%
20	PHILLIPS Jeffrey T.	-	-	3%	15%	32%	35%	15%
21	VENKAT Rakesh	6%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%	-
22	PARKER Riley D.	1%	7%	23%	35%	25%	8%	1%
23	PHILLIPS Wesley Y.	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
24	GREGORY Dean	21%	39%	28%	10%	2%	-	-
25	LIU Alexander	-	-	4%	17%	33%	33%	12%
26	HARBER Mike	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
27	IYOKI Kent	-	6%	24%	40%	25%	5%
28	WELDON Benjamin	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
29	MAKHLOUF Anthony J.	18%	42%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
30	RIBAUDO David J.	14%	34%	32%	15%	4%	1%	-
31	PADHYE Siddhant	-	5%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%
32	STONE Henry J.	-	1%	7%	24%	40%	25%	3%
33	UNDERWOOD John D.	2%	14%	35%	34%	14%	2%
34	MAHMOUD Hossam	21%	39%	28%	10%	2%	-	-
35	HUNSUCKER Zach S.	10%	36%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
36	BRUS Brian V.	4%	20%	35%	28%	11%	2%	-
36	RODNEY Maxwell	13%	34%	33%	16%	4%	-	-
36	HOLCOMB Wesley	22%	50%	23%	4%	-	-	-
39	OLDHAM Zachary	9%	30%	35%	19%	5%	1%	-
40	ODEN Isaac M.	2%	18%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-
41	PARAKH Darayus	39%	41%	16%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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