Music City Series #2

Senior Mixed Foil

Sunday, January 12, 2020 at 11:30 AM

Music City Fencing Club - Nashville, TN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	STANLEY Mason B.	-	-	1%	15%	52%	32%
2	MITCHELL Philip D.	-	-	1%	9%	35%	41%	14%
3	ZHAO Jason L.	-	-	2%	19%	47%	32%
3	ANDREYENKA Yana	-	9%	34%	41%	16%
5	CHOUN Samuel Minwook	-	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
6	LI Simon A.	-	1%	6%	25%	39%	24%	4%
7	BURTE Alexander J.	-	-	-	6%	40%	43%	11%
8	ANDREYENKA Hanna	-	2%	19%	41%	31%	8%
9	DELAP Rylan Q.	-	-	1%	6%	23%	41%	29%
10	BARLETTA Joseph	-	-	2%	23%	50%	24%
11	SCHEMBRI MCCORD Kruz T.	-	-	-	11%	46%	43%
12	STUTCHBURY Carolina J.	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%
13	UPTON Craig	-	1%	14%	47%	31%	6%	-
14	MEYERS Lee P.	-	-	2%	15%	39%	35%	9%
15	ZHAO Sophie L.	1%	9%	28%	38%	21%	3%
16	CAPELLUA Tommaso	7%	28%	39%	22%	4%
18	CREEL Aidan H.	-	-	3%	23%	43%	27%	5%
19	CHEN Andrew	-	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	23%
20	BOUIE Jacob	-	2%	20%	42%	30%	6%
21	LIM Samuel	-	1%	19%	53%	24%	3%
22	ZHAO Dylan L.	2%	14%	38%	35%	10%	1%
23	CURTIS William K.	2%	16%	37%	34%	11%
24	TEITENBERG John F.	-	5%	23%	40%	26%	6%	-
25	COVER Harrison	10%	35%	39%	15%	1%	-	-
26	WALKER-JONES Ethan	1%	12%	59%	26%	2%	-
27	PANTIN Dominique L.	6%	31%	41%	19%	3%	-
28	JACOBSON Leah	11%	32%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
29	AMMON Blue	34%	47%	17%	2%	-	-
30	FRIEDENBERGER Jacob	17%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-
31	FOYE Clay	2%	14%	35%	35%	13%	1%	-
32	TUGGY Sam	9%	32%	38%	18%	3%	-
33	EDWARDS Darby	3%	15%	30%	30%	16%	4%	-
34	BAKER Julian L.	-	2%	16%	37%	33%	11%	1%
35	LIM Joshua	20%	44%	30%	6%	-	-	-
36	KNOPF Jenna G.	21%	44%	29%	6%	-
37	BURT Stephen	43%	50%	7%	-	-	-
38	HUANG Jonathan S.	7%	37%	42%	12%	1%	-	-
39	SYKES Lauren	4%	20%	34%	28%	12%	2%	-
40	COLLUM Thomas	7%	29%	42%	21%	1%	-
41	LIM Lance Jeremiah	45%	50%	5%	-	-	-
42	GRIMWOOD Donovan	7%	27%	38%	23%	5%
43	LE Tan	11%	33%	36%	16%	3%	-	-
44	USELTON Kaden	28%	47%	23%	2%	-	-	-
45	SORRELLS Brea	28%	49%	20%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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