BladeRunner 2018 Div 1A ROC & RJC

Junior Women's Épée

Saturday, November 3, 2018 at 1:30 PM

La Jolla, CA - La Jolla, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YEU Irene	-	-	1%	14%	43%	42%
2	BEITTEL Chloe F.	-	-	1%	6%	27%	45%	21%
3	SHAMSIAN Shaya	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	8%	1%
3	BRILL Sophie	-	1%	10%	31%	38%	17%	3%
5	LEANG Andrea K.	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%
6	KORNGUTH Lindsay	-	-	1%	10%	32%	41%	15%
7	GEBALA Natalie Brooke A.	-	-	1%	7%	24%	40%	27%
8	BEIHOLD Emily M.	1%	6%	20%	32%	28%	12%	2%
9	ZUHARS Renee A.	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	31%
10	WANG Nora	1%	8%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%
11	JIN Jasmine	-	-	2%	9%	26%	39%	24%
12	GAO Aretha R.	-	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
13	CHAN Cheri K.	-	-	2%	9%	28%	40%	22%
14	SMIK Leonie A.	-	7%	26%	38%	23%	5%
15	BROOKS Tean R.	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	10%
16	JIANG Claire	21%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-	-
17	QURESHI Aafreen	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	8%	1%
18	KIMURA Kimberley H.	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	2%
19	GERARDIN Marie	3%	16%	34%	31%	13%	2%	-
20	YOUNG Ashley	-	2%	13%	30%	34%	17%	3%
21	NGUYEN Kaylin A.	-	5%	20%	37%	30%	8%
22	LEUNG Natalie	-	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
23	LEANG Priscilla Y.	-	1%	12%	40%	38%	9%
24	LAVERY Chloe K.	4%	30%	43%	20%	3%	-
25	ERTAS Eileen	3%	17%	33%	30%	14%	3%	-
26	BEI Karen	8%	30%	37%	20%	5%	-
27	HARKNESS Anya C.	7%	26%	35%	23%	8%	1%
28	DINGMAN Amanda	1%	10%	31%	37%	18%	3%	-
29	DARANOUVONG Logan	14%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-
30	STOJANOVIC Mina	9%	30%	37%	19%	4%	-
31	SOIN Anika A.	1%	6%	22%	34%	26%	9%	1%
32	KIM Annabelle	18%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
33	LIEBER Josephine A.	3%	16%	32%	30%	15%	3%	-
34	JIANG Corina	1%	10%	29%	35%	20%	5%	1%
35	LAU Brynn Mackenzie	3%	14%	30%	31%	17%	5%	-
36	WEBER Nora	-	3%	14%	30%	33%	17%	3%
37	HOGE Natalie M.	1%	10%	27%	34%	21%	5%	-
38	FREIBURGER Ilyssa M.	1%	12%	33%	34%	15%	3%	-
39	ZHOU Emily	7%	26%	37%	23%	6%	1%
40	MARTUS Cosima O.	2%	21%	42%	29%	6%	-
42	ZHANG Ivyla	20%	42%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
43	RODARTE Angelina	31%	41%	21%	6%	1%	-	-
44	LI Kaitlyn K.	65%	30%	5%	-	-	-
46	LI Charlotte	4%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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