Arnold Fencing Classic 2020

Y-10 Mixed Foil

Sunday, March 8, 2020 at 12:00 PM

400 N High Street, OH - 400 N High Street, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIU Ethan	-	2%	13%	33%	36%	15%
2	ANTONUCCI Suren	1%	7%	22%	32%	26%	10%	2%
3	ALLEN Henry G.	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%
3	GUTH Joseph	-	4%	14%	28%	31%	18%	4%
5	LIU Yinhong	-	3%	18%	36%	30%	11%	1%
6	PONTOPPIDAN Erik	2%	14%	30%	33%	17%	4%	-
7	HO CHRISTIAN S.	10%	30%	34%	19%	6%	1%	-
8	ZOLDAN Gweniveve A.	-	3%	14%	30%	32%	17%	4%
9	DEPP Edward	-	-	2%	14%	35%	36%	13%
10	MANDZY Theodor	-	5%	26%	40%	24%	5%
11	RUSSELL Paul	2%	15%	32%	33%	15%	3%
12	PALMA Nathan Anthony	12%	35%	36%	15%	2%	-
13	RICHARDSON John Thomas	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
14	LICHTENSTEIGER Megan	-	5%	18%	32%	29%	13%	2%
15	CULLIVAN Sienna	2%	12%	27%	31%	20%	7%	1%
16	ZHENG Marcus	-	< 1%	3%	14%	32%	36%	15%
17	LI Joseph	-	3%	14%	30%	33%	17%	3%
18	IANNI Renato	-	-	3%	14%	32%	36%	15%
19	MCGRATH Milo	1%	8%	29%	38%	20%	3%	-
20	DELONG Ian	14%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
21	MANRIQUE Cameron	2%	14%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-
22	KAHN Aaron	1%	9%	26%	35%	23%	6%
23	WALKER Kaiden	5%	21%	33%	27%	12%	2%	-
24	LIN Kevin	1%	10%	25%	33%	22%	8%	1%
25	TUCKER-HILL Linnea	26%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
26	DOELL Ethan	13%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
27	MARTIN Wesley	9%	28%	34%	21%	7%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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