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Junior Men's Saber

Saturday, February 8, 2020 at 12:00 PM

Suffern, NY - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KIM Minwook	-	-	-	3%	17%	43%	36%
2	SHI Andrew	-	2%	15%	42%	42%
3	MOLINA Nicholas (Nico) G.	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	31%	9%
3	LIN William	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	24%
5	MOSKOWITZ Mason C.	-	-	5%	25%	45%	24%
6	MORRILL Justin	-	4%	21%	41%	29%	6%
7	GHOSH Tuhin	-	1%	10%	31%	41%	17%
8	CZAHA Balint	-	-	6%	27%	44%	23%
9	NADILE Henry V.	-	-	-	1%	6%	31%	62%
10	MORRILL William	-	1%	10%	36%	40%	13%
11	BASALYGA Jeffrey	-	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
12	ALKEMPER Tristan H.	-	3%	16%	33%	33%	13%	1%
13	KOGAN Benjamin	-	8%	35%	45%	12%
14	CHO Brandon	-	-	4%	23%	45%	27%
15	LAU Jeremy Y.	-	1%	9%	33%	41%	17%
16	PETRAMALE Samuel J.	-	3%	15%	33%	34%	14%	1%
17	QIN Alexander	1%	11%	30%	35%	18%	4%	-
18	VAULES Charles W.	-	4%	23%	40%	27%	6%
19	KEEFE Duncan	-	5%	21%	39%	28%	7%
20	EPSTEIN Henry N.	1%	8%	31%	40%	18%	3%
21	SPOSATO Andrew P.	1%	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%
22	TEVEBAUGH Andrew	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%	-
23	TANG Albert	5%	25%	43%	24%	3%
24	CHAUDHURI Eeshaan A.	23%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-	-
25	BOURGHOL Matthew	8%	31%	38%	19%	4%	-
26	SRINIVAS Manu	3%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
27	DA GRACA Aidan	2%	17%	43%	29%	8%	1%
28	FIELDS Matthew S.	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%	-
29	BUCCINO George	42%	44%	13%	2%	-	-
30	WALKER Robert Connor	-	3%	15%	34%	33%	13%	1%
31	VAROQUA Tolby	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
32	PANDEY Neil	18%	44%	30%	7%	1%	-
33	CHERNAEV Aleksandar	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
34	KESSLER Josh	47%	42%	10%	1%	-	-
35	GEORGE Daniel	25%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-
36	BURDAN Gabriel	34%	45%	19%	3%	-	-
37	HUANG Tyler T.	20%	49%	26%	5%	-
38	NEVILLE James	14%	38%	34%	12%	2%	-
39	YASAN Anthony	21%	43%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
40	MAKLIN Edward P.	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
41	ZHANG Yankun	22%	48%	25%	5%	-	-
42	SAINT-HILAIRE URBINA Julian	28%	44%	23%	5%	-
43	ROSEN Ben	22%	52%	23%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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