THRUST WINTER RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Women's Saber

Saturday, February 8, 2020 at 4:00 PM

Suffern, NY - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LU Elaine	-	-	-	2%	11%	38%	50%
2	MARYASH Samantha	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	9%
3	FEIG Sela	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
3	ANTHONY Alexia B.	-	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
5	FLATT Sophia	1%	13%	36%	35%	13%	2%
6	DAI Olivia	4%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
7	NATH Trisha	-	-	2%	15%	43%	40%
8	JEONG Katie	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
9	FESTA Carina	-	1%	11%	33%	40%	14%
10	XU ALINA	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
11	DONG Angel	-	4%	27%	43%	23%	3%
12	JOHNSON Dagny L.	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
13	ZHENG Valentina	-	4%	21%	40%	28%	6%
14	SHINCHUK Ellisha	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	3%
15	LI Alexis	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%	-
16	NAYAK Esha	9%	37%	37%	14%	2%	-
17	KHAN Alissa	-	3%	19%	39%	31%	7%
18	ALTIRS Kate	-	2%	10%	26%	36%	22%	4%
19	BOLT-TURNER Carmen	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	26%
20	MUND Ruth	13%	33%	33%	17%	4%	-	-
21	MAKLIN Sofia	-	2%	12%	35%	38%	12%
22	LOPEZ-ONA Mia	-	4%	20%	41%	28%	6%
23	CHIARELLI Valentina	-	1%	10%	29%	40%	21%
24	MALEK Zolie	3%	23%	39%	26%	8%	1%
25	LIM Alexa J.	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-
26	KNOBEL Sophia	15%	42%	31%	10%	1%	-
27	YU Abriella R.	2%	15%	38%	32%	11%	1%
28	LOO Kaitlyn	-	2%	15%	35%	35%	12%
29	SHUMAKIN Alisa	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	4%	-
30	LIU Yifei	25%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-
31	LAGOON Miriam	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%
32	TING Sydney	35%	44%	17%	3%	-	-
33	WU Allison Y.	3%	20%	39%	29%	8%	1%
34	BONFILI Clara	1%	10%	31%	38%	17%	2%
35	PROZUMENT Elizabeth	44%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
36	SRINATH Lyra A.	24%	43%	26%	6%	1%	-
37	SONG Isabelle	15%	40%	34%	11%	1%	-
38	HORVITZ Jacqueline	36%	42%	18%	4%	-	-
39	BUSH Bethany	1%	7%	23%	34%	25%	8%	1%
40	MAGITSKY Leila	9%	32%	39%	17%	3%	-
41	CHO Audrey	5%	21%	34%	27%	11%	2%	-
42	FRY Daria	42%	43%	14%	2%	-	-
43	LIU Chenxin	7%	31%	40%	18%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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