The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

THRUST WINTER RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Sunday, February 9, 2020 at 8:00 AM

Suffern, NY - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHO Rebecca H.	-	-	-	1%	9%	39%	51%
2	SOLDATOVA Maria	-	-	-	5%	22%	43%	30%
3	ZHENG Julie	-	-	3%	17%	42%	39%
3	ORVANANOS Anice	-	-	-	-	4%	27%	69%
5	AMR HOSSNY Sara	-	-	-	5%	32%	63%
6	KOKES Gwendolen	-	-	-	-	6%	34%	60%
7	CASCONE Emily	-	-	1%	10%	36%	41%	11%
8	YANG Iris	-	1%	7%	30%	50%	13%
9	CHOW Annabelle	-	-	4%	21%	42%	28%	5%
9	CHEN Renee	-	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
11	HOU Wendong	-	-	2%	11%	34%	42%	10%
12	YURKOVA Mariia	-	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	9%
13	NULAND Zoe	4%	24%	41%	25%	5%	-
14	ZHOU Catherine	-	-	3%	16%	37%	37%	6%
15	ZHOU Sophia	5%	24%	39%	25%	6%	1%	-
16	PAULUS Sloane	8%	35%	39%	16%	2%	-
17	WEI Angela	-	3%	14%	35%	36%	11%	1%
18	DEVLIN Xeta	-	6%	24%	39%	25%	5%
19	RHEE-ALBRECHT Kaya	2%	18%	37%	30%	11%	1%	-
20	BADLANI Diya	1%	10%	30%	36%	19%	4%	-
21	KASHYAP Sana	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%	-
22	TANG Sophia	6%	33%	39%	18%	4%	-	-
23	CHEN Thea	-	5%	20%	37%	29%	8%	1%
24	FORNES Jolie A.	1%	12%	33%	34%	16%	3%	-
25	BERGEL Daphne	12%	41%	34%	11%	2%	-
26	SHIM Grace	1%	8%	30%	39%	20%	3%
27	PEVZNER Nicole	16%	41%	32%	9%	1%	-	-
28	COHEN-RAYMOND Beatrix	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-	-
29	JIANG Claire	2%	17%	40%	33%	8%	-
30	SHEN Emilia	-	4%	24%	40%	26%	5%
31	KEM Madeleine	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-	-
32	ROSENBERG Danielle	8%	29%	37%	20%	5%	-	-
33	DALBERG Meadow	54%	37%	8%	1%	-	-
34	WANG Reese	3%	22%	41%	28%	7%	1%	-
35	YANG Emma	1%	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
36	WANG Rachael	15%	39%	33%	11%	1%	-	-
37	MINGORANCE Elena	3%	25%	43%	24%	5%	-	-
38	DALBERG Violet	59%	34%	7%	1%	-	-	-
39	ZHANG Ivy	42%	42%	14%	2%	-	-
40	SCHULTZ Norah	34%	44%	19%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.