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2019-20 Badawi Challenge RJCC/RYC Region 5

Y-14 Men's Épée

Saturday, February 1, 2020 at 3:00 PM

Austin, TX - Austin, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	FRAY Alexander	-	-	1%	14%	86%
2	GYURE Brayden H.	-	-	3%	20%	48%	29%
3	NEAL John P.	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
3	KHANNA Nikhil	-	4%	18%	39%	31%	8%
5	KARKI Salyan	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%
6	SONG Alexander	7%	33%	38%	18%	4%	-
7	SEEFELDT William Henry C.	-	1%	9%	27%	40%	22%
8	PANAYOTOV Alexander	1%	10%	31%	39%	17%	2%
9	MCALISTER Ian	2%	19%	48%	30%	1%
10	CASTOR Landon	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
11	GAITHER Christopher W.	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	4%
12	SURESH NEERAJ	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
13	MANZUR Adalberto Tito	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
14	GUNDA Saketh	3%	21%	45%	30%	2%
15	RUNGE Patrick A.	16%	40%	32%	10%	2%	-
16	SEBASTIAN Alexander P.	7%	30%	39%	20%	4%	-
17	DRASKOVICH Nikolas	32%	46%	19%	2%	-
18	XIONG Aaron	31%	44%	21%	4%	-	-
19	CHANG Luo Jixiu	3%	20%	39%	29%	9%	1%
20	BELANI Aran	2%	14%	34%	33%	14%	2%
21	WILSON Beckett V.	14%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
22	XIAO Andrew	25%	47%	24%	4%	-
23	ESHONKULOV Aziz	18%	45%	29%	8%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.