Treasure Chest RYC 2020

Y-12 Women's Foil

Monday, January 20, 2020 at 1:00 PM

San Francisco, CA - San Francisco, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GEBALA Gabrielle Grace A.	-	-	-	-	2%	31%	68%
2	FUNG Emma	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
3	LUO Sandra J.	-	-	1%	8%	28%	44%	19%
3	ZHANG Eunice	-	-	4%	22%	44%	30%
5	LIU Zhaoyi	-	-	-	1%	16%	61%	22%
6	WANG Celine S.	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
7	HOBSON Ava	-	2%	17%	38%	33%	10%
8	PENG Serena	-	2%	16%	39%	34%	9%
9	DAVIS Bonnie Z.	-	-	-	1%	7%	33%	59%
10	NAIR Supriya	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	13%
11	VO Bao-Vy	-	1%	11%	35%	39%	13%
12	XU Audrey J.	8%	35%	38%	16%	3%	-
13	FUNG Vera	-	3%	16%	39%	37%	6%	-
14	HOVAGHIMIAN Fira	-	8%	32%	39%	19%	3%
15	DAYAL Saahira	3%	15%	33%	32%	14%	3%	-
16	THOMAS Saejel	7%	29%	40%	20%	4%	-	-
17	WANG Zoie Z.	-	-	-	3%	17%	44%	36%
18	BOLES Amanda X.	-	1%	10%	29%	38%	20%	3%
19	MANIKTALA Prisha	-	1%	10%	32%	40%	17%
20	LIU Emma	-	2%	12%	31%	36%	17%	2%
21	LIPKOVITZ Rivka	6%	26%	39%	23%	6%	1%
22	AIRES Julia	3%	22%	41%	26%	7%	1%
23	CHU Camille	10%	34%	36%	17%	3%	-
24	KANDL-ZHANG Lea	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%
25	SINGH Ashni	1%	11%	29%	35%	20%	4%	-
26	PENG Charlotte	-	4%	20%	38%	30%	8%
27	MANN Sophia J.	-	3%	16%	35%	33%	12%	1%
28	HO Kristen	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-	-
29	GILLIS-PADE Neallie	-	1%	11%	33%	39%	16%
30	YANG Audrey	2%	17%	38%	31%	11%	1%
31	KIM Rachel	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	7%
32	ENRILE Erica	30%	42%	22%	6%	1%	-	-
33	MU Allison	6%	48%	35%	10%	1%	-
34	LUH Mia P.	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%	-
35	CHUNG Penelope	46%	40%	12%	2%	-	-	-
36	EBERHART Ava	5%	23%	38%	25%	7%	1%	-
37	SANTOS Emilia	28%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
38	OH Ceana	15%	44%	32%	8%	1%	-
39	ZHENG Zoe	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%	-
40	MALOBRODSKY Isabel K.	3%	31%	44%	19%	3%	-	-
41	MORRIS-WEIDE Ella	46%	41%	12%	1%	-	-
42	LENK Sophie	1%	10%	33%	42%	14%	1%	-
43	LIU Jessica	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-
44	YANG Chloee	81%	18%	1%	-	-	-
45	KHAIRUL ANWAR Rania Zara	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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