The Orlando Challenge RYC & RJCC

Cadet Men's Foil

Sunday, February 9, 2020 at 1:00 PM

Orlando, FL - Orlando, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ARIZA Isaac A.	-	-	-	-	2%	24%	74%
2	TOMINO rafael	-	1%	9%	35%	45%	10%
3	SAGE Michael J.	-	-	1%	7%	31%	50%	11%
3	DEGROOT Blake	-	-	3%	21%	51%	22%	2%
5	GRIFFITH JACK	-	-	-	-	3%	27%	70%
6	SONG Leonardo T.	-	-	1%	14%	49%	36%
7	DERBAUM Brandon A.	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	25%
8	TIYA BIAYA K.	-	-	1%	8%	34%	48%	9%
9	SYLVESTER William Z.	-	5%	24%	39%	26%	6%
10	WILLIAMS Connor J.	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	21%
11	DERBAUM Ryan	-	-	1%	14%	49%	36%
12	VIANNA Guilherme	-	4%	19%	37%	32%	7%	-
13	DONDERIS AJ	-	4%	18%	37%	31%	9%
14	ZHENG zhe	1%	10%	31%	37%	18%	3%
15	ORTEGA Jose-Arnel	-	6%	35%	44%	13%	1%
16	LOVE Aaron	-	3%	18%	37%	32%	10%
17	JITTAN daniel	-	-	-	5%	32%	63%
18	LEE Jacob	1%	23%	45%	26%	5%	-
19	FORSYTH Patrick	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%	-
20	ANAND Aayush	9%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-	-
21	ROSS III Paul D.	2%	14%	37%	36%	10%	1%	-
22	LONG Connor M.	-	6%	28%	44%	20%	2%
23	CEDERQUIST Zachary	-	2%	15%	36%	35%	12%
24	KIM Justin	24%	53%	20%	2%	-	-
25	TUGGY Sam	4%	21%	38%	28%	8%	1%	-
26	WEGMAN Jack	12%	36%	36%	15%	2%	-	-
27	BUCHENHORST Anton	6%	26%	38%	24%	6%	1%
28	DE COQUET Maximilian	4%	37%	42%	15%	2%	-
29	KIM Chaemin	22%	45%	26%	7%	1%	-
30	BATRA Dev	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
31	HOGGARD Carson	31%	44%	20%	4%	-	-
32	RIVERA IVAN	3%	17%	37%	33%	11%	1%	-
33	FRIEDENBERGER Jacob	1%	12%	43%	36%	8%	-
34	KHAN Ahyaan	21%	47%	27%	5%	-	-	-
35	KANDAGADLA Rishi	53%	40%	6%	-	-	-
36	ECKES Tyler	7%	42%	39%	11%	1%	-	-
37	YUAN Austin	31%	43%	21%	5%	-	-
38	CUNANAN Ethan	80%	18%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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