Boston Fencing Club ROC

Div I-A Men's Foil

Saturday, February 1, 2020 at 8:00 AM

Boston, MA - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIU Niles J.	-	-	-	4%	28%	69%
2	ADAMS Luke C.	-	2%	11%	29%	36%	19%	3%
3	JIMENEZ Diran	-	-	1%	10%	31%	41%	17%
3	COSTELLO Chaissen F.	-	2%	18%	45%	31%	4%
5	SULLIVAN Jackson R.	-	-	-	2%	11%	38%	49%
6	HEWES Thomas G.	-	2%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%
7	KAO Castor T.	-	1%	17%	44%	33%	5%
8	LIU Kevin B.	-	2%	13%	30%	34%	18%	3%
9	IVARSSON Oliver	-	7%	27%	39%	22%	5%	-
10	DING Jonathan	-	1%	9%	30%	42%	19%
11	CHENG Thomas C.	-	-	3%	13%	32%	36%	16%
12	MARSHALL Ian	-	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	4%
13	DOBBINS Evan W.	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	21%
14	SHA Yi Peng	1%	9%	41%	38%	11%	1%
15	LI Owen	-	3%	15%	32%	32%	16%	3%
16	BING Charles	-	4%	20%	39%	30%	8%
17	SANTULLI Tristan	8%	31%	39%	19%	4%	-
18	HERGERT Benito	-	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	3%
19	DEGREMONT Henri S.	-	1%	7%	25%	39%	24%	5%
20	LIANG Lixi (Henry)	-	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
21	ZHAO Jesse	29%	43%	23%	5%	-	-
22	ALIMI Yacine A.	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%	-
23	CUTLER Andrew	13%	43%	32%	10%	1%	-	-
24	BAO Chris W.	48%	44%	7%	-	-	-
25	PAN Eric	1%	11%	34%	35%	15%	3%	-
26	LIGH Thomas	7%	38%	36%	15%	3%	-	-
27	GUO Hairuo	40%	41%	15%	3%	-	-	-
28	CORTIZAS John (Jack)	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%
29	QI Steve	9%	34%	36%	17%	4%	-	-
30	JIN Dennis H.	32%	54%	13%	1%	-	-
31	ACHILOV Sayid	12%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-
32	BOUSSY Luciano	66%	30%	4%	-	-	-	-
33	ZHANG Zixuan "Mark"	50%	39%	9%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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