THE ORLANDO CHALLENGE SYC & RCC Reg Opens 4/8

Y-12 Men's Foil

Sunday, May 30, 2021 at 8:00 AM

Orlando, FL - Orlando, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIN Michael	-	-	3%	13%	31%	36%	16%
2	TANG Owen S.	-	-	-	2%	14%	41%	43%
3	WONG Garrick G.	-	-	-	1%	7%	33%	59%
3	TIYA BIAYA K.	-	-	-	-	5%	34%	61%
5	LI Matthew	-	-	-	3%	18%	45%	34%
6	QIAN Jason H.	-	-	5%	23%	44%	28%
7	SOTO-ULEV Aden A.	-	-	-	4%	25%	53%	17%
8	ZHANG Jiening G.	-	-	4%	22%	45%	30%
9	SUAREZ Adrian	-	3%	14%	33%	35%	14%	2%
10	DINSAY Kristjan	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
11	FUKUDA Diego	-	1%	8%	29%	43%	19%
12	OROPEZA David	-	-	2%	14%	37%	36%	11%
13	NGUYEN martin	3%	19%	36%	29%	10%	1%	-
14	MAO Lucas	-	2%	12%	35%	40%	11%	1%
15	FEDELI Francesco	-	1%	6%	20%	35%	29%	9%
16	ZHANG Aaron	-	2%	14%	36%	36%	12%
17	LORENZO Alejandro	-	1%	8%	26%	38%	23%	3%
18	TWEMLOW Sacha	-	4%	19%	36%	30%	9%	1%
19	ARIZA Abraham J.	1%	8%	31%	39%	19%	3%
20	ALVAREZ ADRIAN ALEJANDRO	1%	10%	35%	38%	15%	2%
21	MORROW Brenden	2%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%
22	KIAYIAS Aris	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%	1%
23	KOE Beckett	3%	18%	39%	31%	9%	1%	-
24	NICOLETTI Luca	-	4%	17%	34%	31%	12%	1%
25	CHENG Ethan	1%	5%	19%	33%	29%	12%	2%
26	PAZ Luis	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%	-
27	LIU Ethan	-	-	2%	12%	33%	40%	13%
28	SUAREZ David	13%	46%	32%	8%	1%	-
29	PACHECO Joel	1%	5%	20%	34%	29%	10%	1%
30	GRIFFITH MCALLISTER Thomas	2%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%	-
31	MARISI Gabriel	3%	18%	37%	30%	11%	2%	-
32	DHOKTE Neev	-	8%	31%	40%	19%	3%
33	SHEN Oliver	1%	9%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%
34	CHEN Junxuan	6%	33%	39%	18%	4%	-	-
35	MOE Annan	7%	28%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
36	CAO Vincent	35%	45%	17%	3%	-	-	-
37	GRIJALBA Gabriel	45%	40%	13%	2%	-	-
38	CARTY JR Johndale	10%	32%	35%	18%	5%	1%	-
39	SON Gwon	3%	21%	40%	29%	7%	1%	-
39	LIM Zachary	35%	42%	19%	4%	-	-	-
41	YOON junhyeok	3%	19%	36%	30%	11%	2%	-
42	YUE Jackson	13%	38%	33%	13%	3%	-	-
43	SHAW Spencer	57%	36%	6%	-	-	-
44	VIDAL Mateo	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-	-
45	HOM Logan	43%	40%	14%	2%	-	-	-
46	SOKOLOV Arseniy	7%	33%	46%	13%	1%	-
47	ZAHRAN Aiden	24%	41%	26%	8%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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