Event Results

Y-12 Men's Foil

Fairfax Challenge Fall RJCC/RYCSurprise Map

Saturday, October 9, 2021 at 12:00 PM Fredericksburg, VA · Fredericksburg, VA, USA

31 finishers

Difficulty Upsets Pool Heatmap Strength

Green wins and red losses stand out more as the result becomes less expected.

#	Name	Bout Difficulty vs. Outcome		Pool Victories
#	Name	Pool	DE	Exp.	Act.	Diff.
1	XU Jia Bao (Bowen)	V V V V V V	V V V V V	5.5	6	+0.5
2	QIAN Jason H.	V V V D V V	V V V V D	4.9	5	+0.1
3	GUTH Joseph	V V V V V	V V D	4.2	5	+0.8
3	SUAREZ Adrian	D V V V V	V V V D	3.7	4	+0.3
5	TANG Alexander L.	V V V V V	V V D	3.9	5	+1.1
6	SHENG Dalton	V V V V V	V V D	3.6	5	+1.4
7	MAO Lucas	V V V D V	V V D	3.6	4	+0.4
8	GRIFFITH MCALLISTER Thomas	D V V V V	V V D	3.0	4	+1.0
9	VADEN Oliver	V V D V V	V D	3.4	4	+0.6
10	KOE Beckett	V V D V V	V D	2.3	4	+1.7
11	ZHAO Adam	V D V V V D	V D	3.0	4	+1.0
12	JIN Andy	V V V D D	V D	2.4	3	+0.6
13	DHOKTE Neev	D V D V V	V D	2.9	3	+0.1
14	ZHANG Alex	V D V V D	V D	3.6	3	-0.6
15	LU Nathan	V D D V V	V D	2.2	3	+0.8
16	PARRISH Evan	V V D D D	V D	2.4	2	-0.4
17	PAN Edwin	V D D D V	D	1.6	2	+0.4
18	HUA Aaron	D D V V D	D	2.0	2	-
19	BOWLES K	D V D V D D	D	1.3	2	+0.7
20	HE Kyle	D D D D V V	D	2.6	2	-0.6
21	SUAREZ David	V D V D D D	D	2.6	2	-0.6
22	HARPER Wesley	D D D V D	D	3.3	1	-2.3
23	MARISI Gabriel	V D D D D	D	2.4	1	-1.4
24	PLUMMER Waylon	D D V D D	D	1.8	1	-0.8
25	CHEN Hanson	D D V D D	D	1.6	1	-0.6
26	YU William	D V D D D	D	1.1	1	-0.1
27	LIU Robert	D D D D V	D	1.4	1	-0.4
28	SHAW Spencer	D D V D D	D	1.1	1	-0.1
29	HE Ryan	D D D D D	D	2.2	0	-2.2
30	KOE Declan	D D D D D D	D	1.1	0	-1.1
31	SMALL Zachary	D D D D D	D	0.4	0	-0.4

Outcome	Difficulty	Win Probability
Victory	Very Hard	0% to 20%
Victory	Hard	20% to 40%
Victory	Roughly Even	40% to 60%
Victory	Easy	60% to 80%
Victory	Very Easy	80% to 100%
Defeat	Very Hard	0% to 20%
Defeat	Hard	20% to 40%
Defeat	Roughly Even	40% to 60%
Defeat	Easy	60% to 80%
Defeat	Very Easy	80% to 100%

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