Fairfax Challenge Fall RJCC/RYC

Junior Women's Épée

Sunday, October 10, 2021 at 4:00 PM

Fredericksburg, VA - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HUSISIAN Hadley N.	-	-	-	-	2%	25%	72%
2	PARK Faith K.	-	-	-	-	2%	98%
3	KIM Elizabeth Y.	-	1%	7%	33%	47%	13%	1%
3	CAPELLUA Mariasole	-	-	5%	24%	50%	21%
5	MACHULSKY Leehi	-	-	-	1%	13%	87%
6	PEELER Julia	-	-	3%	27%	68%	1%
7	PAPADAKIS Lily	-	-	4%	21%	46%	30%
8	DESAI Meera P.	-	-	2%	14%	45%	38%
9	KORFONTA Jolie	-	-	1%	12%	41%	46%
10	LEE Yedda	-	2%	15%	40%	39%	3%
11	GUMAGAY Erika L.	-	-	3%	20%	49%	28%
11	WITTER Catherine A.	-	3%	18%	40%	32%	7%
13	YOU Emily	6%	27%	39%	22%	5%	-
14	JAKEL Sophia N.	-	-	1%	9%	41%	48%
15	PARK Judy	4%	22%	39%	28%	6%	-
16	BARCLAY Khyri	5%	28%	41%	22%	4%	-
17	LIU Nicole	1%	13%	37%	36%	12%	1%
18	EDWARDS Auprell	-	-	1%	6%	30%	53%	11%
19	MILEWSKI Nicole	-	-	5%	23%	46%	26%
20	HOSANAGAR Inchara	4%	23%	41%	26%	5%	-
21	RICHARDSON Lauren C.	1%	15%	38%	34%	11%	1%
22	BYBEE Lucy J.	3%	17%	39%	33%	8%	-
23	LU Samantha R.	-	3%	19%	45%	28%	5%	-
24	MING Cynthia	-	2%	14%	39%	36%	9%
25	AMOROSO Elizabeth	5%	29%	46%	18%	1%	-
26	PINNAMANENI Drithi	1%	11%	37%	42%	8%	-
27	MACEDON Gianna	21%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-
28	LIU Sydney	24%	43%	26%	6%	1%	-
29	ZHAO Ivy	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%	-
30	NIEMAN Anjolie	25%	44%	25%	5%	-	-
31	PULLEN Ayah	5%	34%	40%	17%	3%	-
32	ERDMAN Giselle	20%	43%	30%	7%	1%	-	-
33	MAGALSKI Mary	20%	43%	29%	8%	1%	-
34	MIHILL Margaret	15%	44%	33%	8%	-	-
35	NEELAM Neha	8%	32%	40%	17%	3%	-
36	KEE Bea Isabelle	19%	43%	30%	8%	1%	-
37	NIEMAN Aubrey	16%	42%	33%	8%	1%	-	-
38	LOUGHLIN Ariana	20%	43%	30%	7%	1%	-	-
39	HU Chelsea	3%	20%	40%	29%	7%	-
40	GOSART Hailee	42%	43%	14%	2%	-	-
41	OZBOZ almira	14%	47%	32%	7%	-	-
42	PLAZA-GASALLA Gloria	67%	29%	4%	-	-	-
42	SAIYED Khadijah	17%	43%	32%	8%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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