BladeRunner ROC+RJC

Junior Women's Saber

Sunday, November 7, 2021 at 2:30 PM

RIMAC Arena @ UC San Diego - La Jolla, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	XU Ellen	-	-	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
2	VESTEL Mira B.	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	29%
3	MOZHAEVA MARIA	-	-	-	1%	11%	39%	48%
3	JUNG Irene	-	3%	17%	36%	34%	10%
5	MENDIOLA RITCHIE Ingrid	-	-	4%	20%	40%	30%	6%
6	CODY Alexandra C.	-	-	1%	6%	22%	41%	30%
7	ZUO Xiaofan	-	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	10%
8	CALLAHAN Chase J.	-	-	1%	9%	30%	43%	17%
9	NOVICK Mia J.	-	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%
10	ALFARACHE Gabriella C.	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
10	HOLMES Emma	-	5%	18%	32%	30%	13%	2%
12	WU Lanting	-	1%	6%	21%	35%	28%	8%
13	ULIBARRI Nevaeh L.	-	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
14	WIGGINS Yaanathia	1%	11%	32%	38%	17%	2%
15	ERIKSON Kira R.	-	-	5%	23%	41%	27%	5%
16	YANG Lea	1%	10%	26%	34%	22%	6%	1%
17	FEARNS Zara A.	-	-	-	4%	21%	43%	32%
18	TONG Jessie	1%	12%	31%	34%	17%	4%	-
19	TSOI Julie	-	1%	13%	37%	35%	13%	1%
20	RAMIREZ Mirka A.	4%	26%	41%	24%	5%	-
21	NGUYEN Siena	-	9%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%
22	CHAVEZ Frine	2%	14%	30%	32%	17%	4%	-
23	CHIN Elise	-	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	2%
24	ZHANG Rongruo	-	4%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%
25	LEE Lauren	-	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
26	HU Michelle	7%	26%	35%	23%	8%	1%	-
27	WHITESIDES Abigail E.	2%	16%	45%	30%	7%	1%	-
28	HUANG MADELINE	1%	7%	24%	36%	24%	7%	1%
29	SOWERS Lia	2%	20%	37%	28%	10%	2%	-
30	GOMES Diana C.	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-
31	LIN Nicole	2%	14%	32%	33%	15%	3%	-
32	CHO Michelle	40%	41%	16%	3%	-	-	-
33	BARTON Mele	1%	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-
34	PANIGRAHI Kingsley	7%	40%	37%	14%	2%	-	-
35	PANIGRAHI Sophia	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%	-
36	KIM Olive	32%	48%	17%	2%	-	-	-
37	NEELEY Leilani	71%	26%	3%	-	-	-	-
38	MORAN Rhea	10%	32%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
39	OLKO Sophie	80%	18%	1%	-	-	-	-
40	KOH Carisa	20%	39%	29%	11%	2%	-
41	ANTEBI Sarah	35%	48%	15%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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