The Austin Challenge SYC and RCC

Y-12 Men's Saber

Saturday, December 18, 2021 at 2:30 PM

Round Rock Sports Center - Round Rock, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KIM Ethan	-	1%	10%	32%	42%	16%
2	KANG evan	-	-	4%	19%	42%	35%
3	CARRINGTON IV William T.	-	-	2%	17%	47%	34%
3	VAID Luke	-	-	5%	21%	42%	32%
5	WANG Zhuoyi	1%	6%	22%	36%	28%	8%
6	SO Preston	-	4%	20%	39%	29%	7%
7	CHON Collin	-	5%	19%	35%	31%	10%
8	HWANG Jayden	-	7%	26%	39%	23%	5%
9	CLARK Aram	-	-	-	1%	7%	34%	59%
10	HOLZ Lucas	-	1%	5%	21%	38%	30%	5%
11	WANG Daniel	-	-	3%	22%	48%	26%
12	YAP Kah Kai (Cayden)	1%	10%	27%	35%	22%	5%
13	CRAIG Andrew	-	6%	25%	39%	25%	5%
14	LIN Philip T.	-	1%	8%	30%	41%	19%
15	TANI Tino	-	1%	9%	31%	41%	18%
16	MUNGUIA Nathan	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
17	YU BOWEN	-	4%	17%	34%	31%	11%	1%
18	ZHOU William	25%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-
19	HU Harry	-	3%	15%	37%	34%	11%
20	YANG Phillip	1%	16%	37%	32%	12%	2%
21	XUE Leo	17%	41%	32%	9%	1%	-
22	PINTO Marcus	1%	7%	26%	39%	23%	4%
23	CHAMBERS Miles	-	2%	14%	45%	33%	7%
24	LI AYDEN	3%	17%	36%	31%	12%	1%
25	KIM Samuel	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
26	MEADE Liam Robert	9%	31%	36%	19%	4%	-	-
27	LIU Aaron	1%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%	-
28	CHUNG Connor	2%	18%	37%	31%	11%	1%
29	BOLLU Viren	22%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-
30	KWON Kenneth	13%	39%	34%	12%	2%	-
31	ANAND Rishab	1%	7%	24%	38%	26%	6%
32	HERDA Tiger	30%	41%	22%	6%	1%	-
33	KROON Landon	16%	43%	34%	7%	1%	-
34	ZHANG Kaixuan	7%	29%	38%	21%	5%	-
35	LIANG Preston	9%	33%	38%	17%	3%	-
36	OU Rigel	19%	45%	30%	5%	-	-
37	DAI Zihou	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
38	HAN Kyle	22%	44%	27%	7%	1%	-
39	LIU Cameron	71%	26%	3%	-	-	-
40	HWANG Hagan	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%	-
41	LI Yidong	29%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
42	BOSITA Brennan	27%	47%	24%	3%	-	-
43	ZVI-NOVA Asher	4%	20%	35%	29%	11%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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