AFM Div2 ROC and RJCC

Div II Men's Épée

Friday, November 23, 2018 at 8:00 AM

Sunnyvale, CA - Sunnyvale, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CAI Kevin P.	-	-	1%	9%	33%	43%	14%
2	TERRELL Theodore M.	-	-	4%	17%	36%	32%	10%
3	DESOUZA Hansel S.	-	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%
3	DE JONG Thijmen J.	-	-	1%	11%	36%	41%	12%
5	WISOFF Jeffrey	-	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
6	GHILDIYAL Manyu	-	5%	23%	42%	26%	4%
7	TARBUSKOVICH III John	-	4%	17%	33%	30%	13%	2%
8	DORRELL Connor I.	-	2%	12%	32%	36%	16%	2%
9	SHUR Yakov C.	-	1%	4%	17%	33%	33%	13%
10	VAN EIKEMA HOMMES Neil B.	-	1%	6%	21%	35%	28%	8%
11	HE Jason	-	6%	25%	41%	26%	2%
12	BARRY Dominick	-	-	2%	14%	38%	39%	7%
13	LOUIE Jason	-	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	25%
14	STOLZ Robert	-	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%
15	KIM PAUL	-	3%	13%	28%	32%	19%	4%
16	LIPTON Michael D.	1%	14%	33%	33%	16%	4%	-
17	NGUYEN Steven	1%	9%	27%	35%	21%	6%	1%
18	GARRETT Samuel	1%	16%	36%	31%	13%	3%	-
19	HUSSAIN Kamran	4%	24%	44%	24%	5%	-
20	COMER Alexander J.	26%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-
21	ZHANG Michael	-	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	5%
22	KIM Benjamin I.	1%	11%	30%	34%	19%	5%	-
23	SIVAGAR Leo	-	2%	11%	27%	34%	20%	5%
24	AU Marcus J.	-	2%	18%	37%	30%	11%	1%
25	RYAN Christopher	1%	7%	24%	37%	26%	6%	-
26	KOH Tommy	52%	39%	9%	1%	-	-	-
27	MILOSLAVSKY Jack	3%	16%	32%	31%	15%	3%	-
28	WANG Xu-Chen	1%	8%	23%	33%	24%	9%	1%
29	JOSEPH Abey	50%	38%	11%	1%	-	-	-
30	ARABACI Jack A.	31%	46%	20%	3%	-	-	-
31	RYAN Seth C.	18%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-	-
32	ALFARO Justus	1%	9%	26%	34%	23%	7%	1%
33	LIU Kirk D.	-	< 1%	2%	12%	38%	48%
34	MILEY Nick N.	-	6%	26%	42%	24%	2%	-
35	LEE Trevor	6%	32%	40%	18%	4%	-	-
36	STENNIS Brendan	5%	26%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
37	LUCERO-OLSON Aydin	1%	9%	24%	33%	24%	8%	1%
38	RAKHIMI Marat T.	12%	38%	36%	13%	2%	-
39	PELAYO Raphael	39%	43%	15%	2%	-	-	-
40	PALLI Maximillian	< 1%	2%	12%	32%	37%	16%	1%
40	LIU Chien-ye	16%	36%	31%	14%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.