Fairfax Challenge Summer ROC/RJCC/RYC/VET - Reg Re-Opens 12/28

Div I-A Men's Saber

Friday, June 18, 2021 at 4:00 PM

Fredericksburg, VA - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	AYMAN Mostafa	-	-	-	4%	24%	46%	26%
2	KARAM Tariq A.	-	-	-	1%	7%	32%	61%
3	BENAVRAM Lev C.	-	-	-	4%	21%	43%	32%
3	JEAN Noe T.	-	-	3%	13%	33%	37%	14%
5	FENG Leo	-	3%	18%	37%	31%	10%	1%
6	GEFELL Andrew P.	-	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
7	SIMAK Joseph P.	-	6%	27%	43%	20%	4%	-
8	ZHENG Edward L.	2%	13%	32%	33%	16%	4%	-
9	STONE Esmond A.	-	2%	13%	32%	35%	15%	2%
10	LAI Adam J.	-	-	2%	16%	40%	33%	9%
11	GHENEA George Philipe	-	9%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-
12	FENKER William M.	-	4%	16%	32%	32%	14%	1%
13	MOLINA Nicholas (Nico) G.	-	2%	13%	33%	35%	14%	2%
14	HUANG Ethan F.	1%	8%	24%	35%	24%	7%	1%
15	WU Yiyang	11%	43%	34%	11%	2%	-	-
16	MATT Chris	-	-	1%	10%	32%	42%	15%
17	BASALYGA Jeffrey	-	-	-	2%	13%	40%	44%
18	WOODWARD Connor	-	-	5%	20%	38%	30%	7%
19	CHEONG Heonjae	4%	18%	33%	29%	13%	3%	-
20	PAN Andrew W.	3%	20%	36%	28%	11%	2%	-
21	CHIN Matthew W.	-	6%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
22	OVERDECK Andrew	-	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%
23	GILMORE Thomas W.	1%	8%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%
24	THORNTON Ronald J.	-	-	-	5%	27%	45%	22%
25	LI Joshua L.	2%	12%	28%	33%	19%	5%	-
26	MCCARTHY Gabriel	6%	31%	42%	18%	3%	-	-
27	FERBER Oliver E.	5%	30%	39%	21%	5%	1%	-
28	LIU Mingyang Ryan	11%	39%	36%	11%	1%	-	-
29	AN Damon	23%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-	-
30	LEONARD Cole	1%	11%	29%	34%	19%	5%	-
31	FORT David	47%	38%	12%	2%	-	-	-
32	KORINTH Alexander J.	44%	42%	13%	1%	-	-	-
33	KLEBS Robert	58%	34%	7%	1%	-	-	-
34	BAKER Keith L.	2%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%	-
35	KORINTH Steve	66%	30%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.