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New England Division U20 JO Qualifiers

Junior Men's Foil

Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 8:00 AM

Boston Fencing Club - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SULLIVAN Jackson R.	-	-	-	-	-	2%	98%
2	SHIN Joshua J.	-	-	2%	18%	47%	33%
3	LI Arvin	-	1%	8%	31%	42%	17%
3	DAVIDSON Elliot	-	2%	10%	28%	36%	20%	4%
5	TSAI Max W.	-	-	4%	22%	43%	26%	4%
6	WANG Mason	-	-	1%	12%	39%	40%	8%
7	BUCKLEY-JONES Henry C.	1%	8%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%
8	HOWARD Michael	-	-	3%	22%	48%	27%
9	WU Michael	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%	-
10	MENG Zhaoyi	-	2%	17%	45%	30%	6%
11	MILLER Aidan A.	-	1%	7%	23%	37%	26%	6%
12	MIALL Steven A.	-	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	32%
13	ZHEN Ethan	-	-	4%	15%	33%	34%	14%
14	WOODTHORPE Michael G.	-	3%	14%	31%	32%	16%	3%
15	ALIMI Yacine A.	-	-	4%	22%	45%	30%
16	SEMAPAKDI-CHANG Kaiden	1%	6%	21%	33%	27%	11%	2%
17	DEGREMONT Henri S.	-	-	-	-	6%	33%	61%
18	XU Ethan	-	2%	11%	31%	38%	18%	-
19	JIN Dennis H.	-	3%	24%	43%	25%	5%
20	BOUTIN Nathaniel J.	3%	24%	47%	22%	3%	-
21	LIGH Thomas	-	1%	8%	23%	35%	26%	7%
22	SHAO Eric	1%	9%	27%	35%	21%	6%	1%
23	CHESSA Giovanni	1%	9%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%
24	WILSON Samuel S.	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%	-
25	BOUSSY Luciano	4%	22%	35%	26%	10%	2%	-
26	THADHANI Elio	1%	10%	35%	37%	15%	2%
27	LI Ayren	-	3%	20%	45%	26%	5%	-
28	ZHUANG Chuanxuan	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%	-
29	GARDINER Luke J.	44%	44%	11%	1%	-	-
30	MCQUIDE Elliot	31%	49%	18%	2%	-	-
31	SUTARIA Julian	12%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
32	PELT Ethan T.	24%	51%	22%	3%	-	-
33	BERGERON Justin	40%	43%	15%	2%	-	-	-
34	ABRUZZESE Owen	12%	41%	36%	10%	1%	-	-
35	HAZLETT Grady	39%	47%	13%	1%	-	-
36	ABANILLA Luke	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
37	DOHONEY Tommy	8%	34%	40%	15%	2%	-	-
38	BILODEAU Leo	46%	39%	13%	2%	-	-	-
39	EBERMAN Henry	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-	-
40	DENG Kenny	31%	43%	21%	5%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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