Neil Lazar RYC-RJCC

Y-12 Women's Saber

Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 4:00 PM

New Haven, CT - New Haven, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHIARELLI Valentina	-	-	-	3%	15%	40%	42%
2	BERMAN Greta	-	-	1%	6%	25%	44%	25%
3	LOO Kaitlyn	-	-	5%	23%	44%	27%
3	CHIANG Melissa	4%	18%	33%	30%	13%	2%
5	BUSH Bethany	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	5%
6	FUNG Iris	-	1%	7%	27%	44%	22%
7	MALEK Zolie	-	5%	21%	37%	28%	8%
8	CHAN Madeleine V.	-	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	-
9	HU Anna	-	3%	15%	32%	33%	15%	2%
10	MERCHANT Aishwarya	-	4%	16%	33%	33%	13%
11	CHANG Elle	1%	8%	25%	35%	23%	7%	1%
12	GUGALA Hanna	-	1%	5%	21%	38%	28%	7%
13	MYAT Chloe	-	4%	17%	35%	32%	11%
14	BUSH Divina	-	7%	28%	41%	20%	3%
15	BERRIOS Catalina	2%	10%	28%	35%	21%	5%
16	CHAVAN Arya	21%	44%	27%	7%	1%	-	-
17	LEOU Korina	-	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	-
18	LIU Yifei	1%	8%	26%	36%	23%	5%
19	BORGUETA Madison	18%	37%	30%	12%	2%	-
20	VINOKUR Anita	3%	16%	32%	32%	15%	3%
21	HILD Anya	40%	45%	13%	1%	-	-
22	ENG Madeleine	-	1%	5%	21%	36%	29%	9%
23	RANDALL-COLLINS Shea M.	-	5%	21%	35%	28%	10%	1%
24	GONG Joy	8%	42%	37%	12%	2%	-
25	CASTELO Soleil	3%	21%	37%	28%	10%	1%
26	MARABELLA Grace	15%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
27	MEYERSON Michelle	-	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
28	NGUYEN Viola	2%	19%	42%	29%	7%	1%	-
29	FOSS Persephone	2%	13%	30%	33%	17%	4%
30	BROWN Piper	53%	36%	9%	1%	-	-
31	NGUYEN Matilda	3%	23%	42%	26%	6%	1%
32	PEREIRA Izumi	85%	14%	1%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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