American Challenge RJCC/RYC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Sunday, November 21, 2021 at 12:00 PM

Event Center at Valley Forge - King of Prussia, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YAO Bradley	-	-	-	1%	9%	35%	54%
2	XU Andy P.	-	-	1%	12%	41%	46%
3	CHEN Kyle P.	-	-	-	2%	14%	40%	43%
3	GUTH Joseph	-	-	1%	14%	45%	40%
5	SHENG Dalton	-	-	3%	22%	50%	25%
6	RUIZ ALMEIDA Muhammad	-	1%	11%	33%	41%	13%
7	CHEN Ethan	-	6%	24%	40%	25%	5%
8	GULCHIN Mark	-	-	6%	31%	46%	18%
9	CHENG Logan	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	5%	< 1%
10	SIMONOV Timofey	-	-	1%	16%	45%	38%
11	FOGELSON Hugh	-	4%	16%	32%	32%	14%	2%
12	TANG Terry	-	1%	11%	42%	37%	9%
13	ZENG Rick	-	1%	9%	31%	41%	18%
14	HONG Logan	-	5%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
15	XIE Jicheng	-	3%	28%	47%	20%	3%
16	KELKAR Aakash	49%	39%	11%	1%	-	-
17	ZHANG Alex	-	1%	6%	26%	43%	24%
18	MARTIRE Luca	8%	38%	38%	15%	2%	-
19	DOELL Ethan	1%	10%	33%	39%	15%	2%
20	CHO Xzander	6%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
21	ZHAO Adam	-	4%	16%	31%	32%	15%	2%
22	WEI JR Shan	1%	6%	20%	34%	28%	10%	1%
23	LEE Charles T	1%	6%	20%	34%	28%	11%	1%
24	TANG Royce	3%	18%	39%	31%	9%	1%
25	LU Nathan	-	7%	42%	39%	10%	1%
26	CHEN Hanson	1%	15%	51%	27%	5%	-
27	MCGILLION-MOORE Charles	4%	18%	34%	29%	12%	2%	-
28	SICAT Justin	8%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
29	O'LEARY Colin	2%	16%	39%	32%	10%	1%
30	SHAW eric	40%	50%	10%	-	-	-
31	HUANG Jinyao	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
32	BLACK Henry	16%	36%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
33	KRZYWON Dylan	60%	35%	4%	-	-	-
34	SMALL Zachary	39%	49%	11%	1%	-	-
35	MELE Luca	4%	46%	38%	11%	1%	-
35	COSSROW Alex	58%	34%	7%	1%	-	-
35	CONVERSO-PARSONS Alexander	25%	61%	13%	1%	-	-
38	GANGL Phillip	4%	20%	35%	28%	11%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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