Thrust Fall ROC - Div 1A/Div 2 - plus Non-Regional Junior/Cadet

Div I-A Women's Épée

Saturday, December 8, 2018 at 9:00 AM

Suffern, NY - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KOMAR Sofia	-	-	-	3%	16%	41%	39%
2	KHAMIS Yasmine A.	-	-	-	1%	11%	38%	50%
3	WATRALL Christina	-	-	4%	20%	45%	30%
3	GANDHI Sedna S.	-	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
5	PROVENZA Hannah G.	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
6	LIN Jessica Y.	-	-	-	1%	7%	34%	59%
7	DROVETSKY Alexandra M.	-	-	3%	19%	40%	31%	6%
8	KIM Diane E.	-	1%	6%	23%	41%	26%	4%
9	CHIN Isabella	-	1%	5%	18%	36%	32%	8%
10	ADAMS KIM Madeline	-	3%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%
11	NI Emma	-	3%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%
12	PATURU Meghana	-	1%	5%	24%	46%	24%
13	CHAN Elizabeth	-	1%	9%	27%	38%	22%	3%
14	COBERT Helen G.	-	-	3%	14%	32%	36%	15%
15	BINDAS Blodwen S.	-	-	4%	16%	34%	33%	12%
16	SIBLEY Elisabeth J.	3%	14%	30%	32%	17%	4%	-
17	LEE Olive	1%	7%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
18	REID Sobia	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	31%	10%
19	YOON Julia J.	1%	8%	33%	39%	17%	2%
20	KUNDU Anisha	-	3%	18%	38%	32%	9%
21	YAO Jillian	-	2%	14%	37%	36%	11%
22	LEE Michelle	1%	9%	26%	34%	23%	7%	1%
23	SHVACHKIN Maxine L.	-	4%	17%	34%	32%	12%	1%
24	SMUK Daria A.	7%	28%	39%	21%	4%	-
25	TOLBA Salma	1%	12%	34%	37%	14%	2%
26	GANSER Yuliya	30%	43%	22%	5%	-	-
27	CHAU Cynthia W.	6%	23%	34%	25%	10%	2%	-
28	PARTE Isabella B.	5%	27%	41%	22%	4%	-	-
29	BENATER Lauren	7%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%	-
30	SIDDIQUI Ammna K.	1%	8%	26%	36%	22%	6%	-
31	MASTRONARDI Laura	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
32	XU Jessica	26%	44%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
33	SAAL Anna	2%	13%	33%	34%	16%	3%	-
34	ZHAO Yingying	2%	18%	36%	30%	11%	2%	-
35	WILLIAMS Claudine S.	3%	15%	31%	31%	16%	4%	-
36	KIM Elizabeth Y.	-	5%	19%	36%	29%	10%	1%
37	HODGES Grace A.	3%	20%	39%	29%	7%	1%	-
38	DOUGLAS Julia F.	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
40	INAMDAR Nina S.	38%	44%	15%	2%	-	-
41	SLACKMAN Valerie	10%	36%	37%	15%	2%	-
42	KHITROV Samantha	19%	40%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
43	SHAO Ariel	16%	36%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
44	BYRON Karen J.	8%	32%	36%	18%	5%	1%	-
44	CORDERO Allison	22%	42%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
46	KIM Suejin	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-	-
47	NICOU Nicole	29%	53%	16%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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