Fortune Fencing ROC, VET & RJCC Reg Opens 2/1

Cadet Women's Épée

Sunday, May 30, 2021 at 8:00 AM

Anaheim, CA - Anaheim, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	NGUYEN Tallulah	2%	11%	29%	35%	19%	3%
2	CHEN Lefu	-	-	-	4%	23%	47%	27%
3	LAN Alice S.	-	-	2%	13%	37%	37%	11%
3	FELAND Alexandra	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	16%
5	WU Amelia	-	-	-	3%	20%	47%	31%
6	YAO Yilin	3%	27%	44%	22%	4%	-	-
7	GEBALA Natalie Brooke A.	-	-	3%	16%	41%	40%
8	ZHEREBCHEVSKA Veronika	4%	22%	39%	27%	7%	1%
9	LEUNG Natalie	-	-	-	4%	21%	44%	30%
10	WANG Nora	-	1%	11%	32%	39%	16%
11	CHOI Eunice	-	1%	10%	30%	40%	19%
12	ZHANG mickey	-	7%	27%	38%	22%	5%
13	BEZUGLAYA Varvara	1%	13%	37%	35%	12%	2%	-
14	NELSON-LOVE Lily B.	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	24%
15	KIM Zoe L.	-	-	3%	19%	44%	28%	5%
16	LAVERY Chloe K.	-	-	1%	11%	35%	39%	13%
17	CHIRASHNYA Noya	2%	21%	40%	28%	8%	1%
18	KIM Jayna	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
19	BEAMS Alyona	1%	13%	36%	36%	12%	2%	-
20	GAURIAT Jade S.	1%	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%
21	BUSH emma	2%	22%	40%	27%	8%	1%
22	OPERARIO Abigail Z.	2%	19%	39%	30%	9%	1%
23	POON Desiree	69%	27%	4%	-	-	-
24	XU Katelyn	16%	43%	32%	9%	1%	-	-
25	DANIEL Olivia	-	9%	31%	38%	19%	3%
26	MANDAP Svetlanna	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
27	CHANG Celine A.	1%	13%	36%	35%	12%	2%	-
28	HSU Adele Y.	3%	27%	43%	23%	4%	-	-
29	LOUIE Sarah	44%	42%	12%	1%	-	-	-
30	TOLBERT-SCHWARTZ Cayley	10%	31%	36%	19%	4%	-
31	DONDISCH Andrea	77%	21%	2%	-	-	-
32	RUIZ Lusciana	66%	29%	4%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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