The Southern RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 11:00 AM

Myrtle Beach Convention Center, Hall A - Myrtle Beach, SC, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GINZBURG Adam	-	1%	4%	16%	32%	33%	13%
2	BUI Henry	1%	9%	27%	39%	22%	2%
3	SINGH Ravin	-	-	2%	11%	36%	42%	9%
3	NELSON Cole	-	5%	18%	33%	29%	12%	2%
5	CORBIN Bennett	-	-	2%	10%	28%	38%	21%
6	ARMSTRONG TyLee	5%	21%	35%	28%	11%	2%
7	LIU Nick	3%	14%	30%	31%	17%	4%	-
8	GONZALEZ Aaron M	4%	20%	36%	29%	11%	1%
9	ZAHRAN Aiden	-	-	-	1%	7%	34%	58%
10	LEE DoWon	-	2%	11%	27%	35%	21%	4%
11	CHAWLA Aarav	2%	10%	25%	32%	22%	8%	1%
12	CARTY JR Johndale	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%
13	MCCLESKEY Samuel Fox	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
14	CHA Patrick	21%	39%	28%	10%	2%	-	-
15	ALEXANDER John	1%	7%	22%	34%	26%	10%	1%
16	WOO ROY	3%	20%	36%	28%	11%	2%	-
17	MOORE Alexander	-	2%	10%	24%	34%	24%	7%
18	GONZALEZ Gavin	-	2%	11%	33%	39%	14%	1%
19	KIM Julian	3%	19%	38%	30%	9%	1%	-
20	DOAN Christopher	2%	13%	29%	32%	19%	5%	1%
21	FONG Henry	4%	23%	40%	27%	6%	-	-
22	JIANG Harry	10%	31%	35%	19%	5%	1%	-
23	LEE Christopher	1%	19%	37%	29%	11%	2%	-
24	HOOD Joseph	1%	8%	23%	33%	24%	9%	1%
25	GEURTSEN Henry	1%	22%	39%	27%	9%	2%	-
26	OUELLETTE Ethan	39%	41%	17%	3%	-	-	-
27	VOGT Ryan	4%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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