The Southern RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Men's Foil

Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 12:00 PM

Myrtle Beach Convention Center, Hall A - Myrtle Beach, SC, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WECHSLER Jacob	-	-	-	7%	62%	30%
2	ROSE Ben	-	-	-	6%	34%	60%
3	WONG Garrick G.	-	-	-	-	3%	25%	72%
3	TIKHAEV Alexander	-	-	1%	8%	37%	43%	11%
5	ELWOOD Sebastian F.	-	-	-	1%	8%	37%	54%
6	TANG August L.	-	4%	22%	40%	27%	7%
7	HUANG Eythan	-	2%	15%	38%	36%	8%
8	WANG Winston	-	1%	12%	34%	38%	15%
9	ORLOV Dmitriy	-	-	2%	16%	42%	39%
10	MOE Annan	1%	9%	26%	35%	22%	6%	-
11	MAHRAN-GALINDO Alex	-	-	-	1%	35%	63%
12	LEE Lukas	-	-	2%	17%	45%	36%
13	SONG Austin	-	-	5%	24%	47%	24%
14	ZOU Yuming	1%	10%	33%	37%	16%	2%
15	WANG Brayden	-	-	2%	16%	43%	33%	6%
16	PAN Henry	-	2%	16%	38%	34%	9%
17	FEDELI Francesco	-	1%	10%	32%	40%	17%
18	JIANG Bowang	-	2%	13%	30%	35%	17%	2%
19	LU Nathan	6%	30%	43%	20%	1%	-
20	HE Kyle	2%	12%	33%	37%	15%	1%
21	PAZ Luis	7%	34%	40%	17%	3%	-
22	RODRIGUEZ Lazaro S.	1%	8%	26%	35%	23%	6%	-
23	TIKHONOV Iliya	-	5%	25%	39%	25%	6%
24	DHOKTE Neev	1%	13%	36%	37%	13%	1%
25	BHAN Marcus	8%	40%	37%	13%	2%	-
26	GUPTILL Grady	22%	46%	26%	5%	-	-
27	PAN Edwin	8%	31%	41%	19%	1%	-
28	JOHNSON Soren	3%	18%	35%	30%	12%	2%	-
29	JONES Jackson	2%	17%	38%	34%	8%	1%	-
30	TWEMLOW Sacha	-	6%	28%	40%	22%	3%
31	RILEY Colin T.	14%	39%	35%	12%	1%	-	-
32	SHAW Spencer	39%	41%	17%	3%	-	-	-
33	THIYAGARAJAA Ari	10%	33%	37%	16%	3%	-	-
34	YOON Junhyeok	3%	22%	41%	27%	6%	-
35	DEMIR Omer	10%	36%	39%	14%	1%	-
36	SHAEFFER Luke	-	9%	43%	38%	10%	-
37	KIM Chaevin	63%	32%	5%	-	-	-
38	TIKHONOV Daniel	2%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%	-
39	BOWLES Kevin	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-
40	CHEN Zixuan	32%	44%	20%	4%	-	-
41	GADIYARAM Madhav	67%	29%	4%	-	-	-
42	KOE Beckett	13%	50%	29%	7%	1%	-
43	LEE Junehyuk	28%	45%	23%	4%	-	-
44	VENZON Gavin	19%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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