TFC FallFest DIV2/VET ROC

Div II Women's Foil

Saturday, August 21, 2021 at 12:30 PM

San Jose, CA - San Jose, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SHIH Diane	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	10%
2	PANT Anisha	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
3	SHITAMOTO Audrey F.	-	-	5%	22%	45%	28%
3	KOROL Neta	-	-	3%	17%	42%	37%
5	KHOO Lauren A.	-	-	-	1%	8%	35%	56%
6	SUN Chien-Yu	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
7	ZHANG Eunice	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%	1%
8	FUNG Emma	1%	5%	20%	33%	28%	11%	2%
9	PENG Amber L.	-	-	3%	14%	32%	36%	15%
10	LUO Sandra J.	-	2%	10%	27%	35%	21%	5%
11	FERNANDES Thea	-	1%	7%	28%	43%	21%
12	UMAP Arna	-	2%	14%	34%	34%	13%	1%
13	YIN Helen	-	-	3%	17%	39%	34%	7%
14	PATTERSON Natalia	16%	42%	31%	9%	1%	-
15	KOROL Dana	-	2%	15%	37%	35%	11%
16	MORADI Raiyan N.	2%	14%	34%	34%	15%	2%
17	FUNG Vera	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-
18	MU Allison	50%	38%	11%	1%	< 1%	-
19	WELBORN Calissa	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
20	KO Claire	23%	49%	23%	5%	-	-
21	CHOI Kailyn	15%	37%	32%	13%	3%	-	-
22	XU Marie-Anne J.	-	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%
23	KOSLOW Amicie	-	5%	22%	37%	28%	8%
24	WANG Zoie Z.	1%	12%	35%	35%	15%	2%
25	HOBSON Ava	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
26	NICKOLOV Nora	36%	44%	17%	3%	-	-
27	HSIUNG Samantha	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	5%	-
28	PENG Serena	12%	34%	34%	16%	4%	-	-
29	DAYAL Saahira	9%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-	-
30	LI Shuang	1%	7%	24%	37%	26%	6%
31	FRANK Lauren	2%	13%	31%	35%	17%	3%
32	LEE Samantha X.	6%	32%	38%	19%	4%	-
33	DAVIS Bonnie Z.	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
34	CASTANEDA Keira	1%	8%	29%	39%	19%	3%
35	WANG Celine S.	3%	19%	39%	30%	9%	1%
36	MCKAY Teresa	12%	42%	35%	10%	1%	-	-
37	DROGA Jezabel	19%	39%	30%	10%	1%	-
38	ZHENG Zoe	23%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.