Portland ROC - DV1A, DV2 & VET

Div I-A Men's Épée

Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 1:00 PM

Northwest Fencing Center - Beaverton, OR, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LARSEN Samuel F.	-	-	2%	14%	41%	43%
2	MANDOKI Sandor I.	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
3	LEE Andrew O.	-	2%	14%	36%	36%	12%
3	MCGAW Julian E.	-	-	1%	13%	43%	43%
5	SUVOROV Yuly	-	-	7%	28%	39%	22%	4%
6	MUNLIN Donovan	-	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	23%
7	BODON Michele I.	-	-	5%	22%	43%	30%
8	LI Brian X	-	2%	13%	39%	37%	9%
9	CHOI Isaac	-	2%	16%	43%	32%	6%
10	ALGER Caleb (CJ) J.	1%	7%	26%	39%	23%	4%
11	CUMMINGS Atticus C.	-	1%	7%	28%	43%	22%
12	SARKAR agniv	6%	37%	39%	15%	2%	-
13	LEE Tobias (Toby) T.	-	1%	10%	35%	41%	13%
14	CAI Brian	-	5%	23%	39%	27%	5%
15	GUAN Nathan	24%	44%	26%	6%	-	-
16	MEHALL Michael	-	-	2%	15%	36%	35%	12%
17	MAKMATOV Vadim	4%	22%	40%	26%	7%	1%
18	VANDERVELDE Pierce F.	4%	26%	47%	20%	3%	-
19	KIM Andrew J.	-	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4%
20	BEAVER Aaron	75%	23%	2%	< 1%	-	-	-
21	CRASWELL Andrew J.	-	4%	20%	42%	29%	6%
22	KILUK Andrew	11%	38%	36%	13%	2%	-
23	CRANOR Erich L.	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
24	ZHOU Gavin	31%	45%	21%	3%	-	-
25	HSU Shion Tian	-	4%	20%	39%	29%	7%
26	JOHNSON Jeff	-	3%	18%	38%	32%	9%
27	GUBALA Lucas	55%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
28	KLEIN Johannes	11%	38%	38%	11%	1%	-
28	ZHOU Justin	23%	45%	26%	6%	1%	-
30	GULLO Kenji Y.	1%	12%	42%	33%	10%	1%	-
31	SARKAR Anish	39%	42%	16%	3%	-	-
32	ELLINGTON Jeff B.	14%	40%	34%	11%	1%	-
33	STORKEL Adam	2%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%
34	FRANKLIN Ethan	2%	15%	36%	33%	12%	2%
35	STOCK Jordan	24%	45%	25%	6%	-	-
36	DUMKE Alexander	28%	45%	22%	4%	-	-
37	CROPLEY Theodore	8%	53%	32%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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