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Freehold Fencing's Div2 Epee

Div II Mixed Épée

Friday, June 17, 2022 at 6:00 PM

Freehold Fencing Academy - Freehold, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	BOGUSLAVSKY Daniel	100%	100%	97%	74%	28%
2	MATTO Edward	100%	100%	92%	62%	18%
3	SERAFIN Ben	100%	99%	90%	65%	30%	6%
3	UPSHAW Micah	100%	100%	95%	72%	32%	6%
5	ANDERSON Riley	100%	95%	75%	41%	13%	2%
6	FRANCIS Daniel	100%	100%	100%	94%	67%	23%
7	PAUL Max	100%	99%	89%	62%	28%	6%
8	MARTINEZ Joshua	100%	100%	99%	92%	63%	21%
9	GAO Xiaojiang "George"	100%	96%	71%	31%	7%	1%
10	SUN James	100%	95%	66%	18%	2%
11	ZHAO Kuncheng	100%	94%	71%	37%	11%	1%
12	HALM Alexandra	100%	87%	52%	17%	2%
13	HOROWITZ Logan	100%	91%	56%	18%	2%	-
14	SHIN Sangjune	100%	98%	84%	53%	21%	3%
15	KOVACS Wyatt	100%	68%	20%	2%	-
16	LEVCHOOK Thomas	100%	95%	75%	41%	13%	2%
17	KEENER Gerald	100%	51%	11%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.