Premier Challenge RYC/RJCC

Cadet Women's Foil

Saturday, January 22, 2022 at 4:00 PM

Event Center at Valley Forge - King of Prussia, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CALISE Ella	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	14%
2	MI Aileen	-	-	2%	15%	44%	40%
3	MARKOVSKY Nina	-	4%	18%	37%	33%	9%
3	YANG Iris	-	-	3%	18%	42%	37%
5	SIMONOV Dasha	-	-	1%	9%	34%	42%	14%
6	LEVY Avery	-	2%	16%	40%	34%	8%
7	KUMAMOTO Shino	-	-	2%	19%	42%	30%	6%
8	MICHAELSEN Emily	-	-	-	2%	17%	44%	37%
9	ZHAO Aileen Y.	-	-	-	2%	16%	43%	39%
10	MI Anning	-	-	3%	17%	43%	38%
11	SHIM Grace	-	1%	11%	35%	40%	12%
12	SOLDATOVA Maria	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
13	LIU Sophia	-	5%	19%	36%	30%	9%
14	HSIEH Sabrina	17%	45%	30%	7%	1%	-
15	CHEN Jasmine	3%	17%	35%	32%	12%	1%
16	TRACZ Calleigh D.	-	1%	11%	37%	36%	13%	1%
17	YURKOVA Mariia	-	-	4%	21%	41%	28%	6%
18	SHMAY Anastasia	-	2%	16%	40%	34%	8%
19	LEE emily	1%	9%	36%	39%	14%	1%
20	SHA Yi Ling	-	-	2%	14%	37%	36%	10%
21	CHEN Renee	-	-	7%	29%	46%	18%
22	ZHOU Catherine	1%	8%	31%	38%	19%	3%
23	PARK Caitlyn	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
24	HSIEH Rebecca	-	2%	15%	42%	32%	9%	1%
25	TAYLOR-CASAMAYOR Marisol	5%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%
26	YANG Lingting	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
27	HUNT Abigail S.	-	8%	32%	41%	17%	2%
28	LIN Victoria T.	4%	20%	36%	28%	10%	1%
28	MARTIRE Alessandra	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-
30	HUBERT AVA CLAIRE	2%	29%	44%	21%	4%	-
31	PAULUS Isabella	4%	25%	47%	21%	3%	-	-
32	PARK Jacqueline	4%	24%	46%	22%	4%	-	-
33	GOLDSON Jordyn V.	2%	28%	44%	21%	4%	-
34	NEWMAN Ariel	13%	40%	34%	11%	2%	-
35	WANG Reese	15%	50%	28%	6%	-	-
36	WEI Angela	13%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-
37	LI Eleanor	30%	49%	18%	2%	-	-	-
38	LEE Alice	22%	51%	24%	3%	-	-	-
39	SNYDERS Evelyn	35%	47%	16%	2%	-	-	-
40	HOWELL Jocelyn	29%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
41	CHAKRAPANI Ila	60%	34%	5%	-	-	-
42	VAROQUA Tala	7%	30%	40%	19%	3%	-
43	FROMAL Aylee	80%	19%	1%	-	-	-
44	FROMAL Lily	45%	43%	11%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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