Neil Lazar RYC/Vet ROC

Y-12 Women's Saber

Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 9:30 AM

New Haven, CT - New Haven, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LI Amanda C.	-	-	-	4%	18%	41%	36%
2	SHOMAN Jenna	-	-	1%	6%	26%	44%	24%
3	DUBOIS Lauren N.	-	2%	10%	28%	35%	21%	4%
3	SOURIMTO Valeria	-	-	4%	22%	47%	27%
5	ENGELMAN Madeline A.	-	1%	6%	23%	38%	27%	6%
6	BEVACQUA Aria F.	-	5%	24%	47%	24%
7	MIKA Veronica	-	1%	6%	21%	38%	29%	6%
8	SINHA Anika	-	3%	17%	37%	32%	11%	1%
9	OBRADOVIC Ana	-	1%	8%	23%	35%	25%	7%
10	PAUL Lila	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
11	SO Catelyn	-	-	1%	6%	26%	44%	24%
12	BALAKUMARAN Maya	-	4%	16%	31%	31%	15%	3%
13	LI Jaimie	1%	6%	22%	36%	26%	8%	1%
14	JOHNSON Dagny L.	-	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%
15	PASHIN Anna	4%	19%	35%	29%	12%	2%	-
16	LEE Sophia	1%	7%	26%	39%	23%	4%
17	HILD Nisha	-	5%	20%	35%	28%	11%	1%
18	LAMMER Sophie G.	1%	9%	31%	40%	18%
19	MANSPERGER Leena	-	1%	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
20	LU Elaine	15%	36%	32%	13%	2%	-
21	LI Sophie	-	6%	25%	39%	24%	6%	-
22	MCKEE Ainsley	27%	43%	24%	6%	-
23	JAVERI Amaya	2%	10%	27%	33%	21%	6%	1%
24	LOPEZ-ONA Mia	16%	35%	31%	14%	3%	-	-
25	LEUNG Ashlyn K.	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
26	NAYAK Indra	3%	14%	29%	31%	18%	5%	1%
27	HUANG Caroline	24%	39%	26%	9%	2%	-	-
28	FEIG Sela	6%	33%	41%	17%	2%
29	NAYAK Anika	8%	30%	39%	19%	4%	-
30	SHINCHUK Ellisha	3%	19%	37%	29%	10%	2%	-
32	YOUNG Audrey	< 1%	3%	14%	32%	35%	16%	2%
33	MONTORIO Lily M.	4%	20%	36%	28%	10%	2%	-
34	NATH Trisha	11%	42%	35%	11%	2%	-	-
35	WU Allison Y.	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	1%	-
36	MCKEE Brynnley	25%	45%	24%	5%	-	-	-
37	KHAN Alissa	8%	37%	42%	12%	1%
38	GUILFOYLE Alanna	14%	46%	32%	8%	1%	-
39	NAYAK Esha	23%	40%	27%	8%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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