The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

ROC of the Rockies

Div II Men's Foil

Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 12:45 PM

Denver Fencing Center - Denver, CO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	LEE Jonah	-	4%	18%	36%	31%	10%
2	MEJIA MATTHEW D.	-	1%	8%	28%	41%	22%
3	DESHMUKH Arjun	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	17%
3	LI Avery Peihong	-	1%	8%	26%	40%	23%
5	WALL Peter M.	17%	37%	31%	13%	2%	-
6	ZHENG zhe	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	11%
7	TANG Albert	3%	18%	35%	30%	12%	2%
8	FINLEY Dylan	-	4%	20%	38%	29%	8%
9	SMITH Grant D.	-	5%	29%	42%	21%	3%
10	FINNEY Lorenz	-	-	4%	21%	43%	31%
11	DELISLE Jonas P.	-	-	1%	11%	41%	47%
12	REICHEL Ezra	-	11%	38%	37%	12%	1%
13	FLYNN Ian	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	11%
14	GREENEBAUM Oliver	4%	41%	39%	14%	2%	-
15	KRAMER Matt	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%
16	LYNCH Owen C.	1%	7%	25%	37%	24%	6%
17	JIA Gabriel	10%	39%	36%	13%	2%	-
18	SCHOENACK Jason A.	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
19	JEFFERY Jakob	-	2%	17%	39%	33%	8%
20	WALL Aaron J.	-	5%	25%	42%	24%	4%
21	LI Jett	1%	13%	34%	35%	15%	2%
22	RUBIN Max	24%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-
23	PETERSON Matthew	6%	28%	40%	21%	4%	-
24	WALL John	1%	7%	25%	40%	23%	4%
25	WOMACH Tristan	2%	15%	33%	33%	14%	2%
26	SCHOENACK Noah	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	7%
27	SMITH Brandon J.	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
28	BERKE Daniel (Dan) L.	-	2%	17%	38%	34%	9%
29	TEH Ryan	4%	19%	35%	29%	12%	2%
30	GUO Hairuo	6%	31%	38%	20%	4%	-
31	GRAY Caidan	29%	45%	22%	4%	-	-
32	STINSON Tucker	49%	38%	11%	2%	-	-
33	KNEIPER Morgan	16%	41%	31%	10%	2%	-
34	RODRIGUEZ VINCENT	10%	31%	36%	19%	5%	-
35	HOHN dana	81%	18%	1%	-	-	-
36	ANDERSON Donald	31%	52%	16%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.