Arnold Fencing Classic ROC (Div1A, Div 2, Vet), RJCC, and RYC

Junior Women's Foil

Saturday, March 12, 2022 at 3:00 PM

Ohio Expo Center - Kasich Hall - Columbus, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TALAVERA Daena	-	-	-	3%	26%	71%
2	DEBACK Greta I.	-	-	2%	19%	52%	26%
3	KNIGHT Skylar	-	-	-	-	2%	30%	68%
3	ZHAO Sophie L.	-	-	3%	16%	43%	38%
5	SARTORI Taylor M.	-	-	1%	10%	41%	48%
6	NEWHARD Zelia "Zizi"	-	-	2%	16%	51%	31%
7	NAMGALAURI Mariam	-	1%	14%	44%	40%
8	DE LA CRUZ Eden	-	2%	12%	34%	39%	13%
9	MEI Sarah	-	1%	11%	41%	41%	6%
10	MASSICK Laine	-	-	1%	11%	46%	42%
11	LEE Ariana	-	6%	31%	45%	17%
12	LUO ZIWEN	-	-	-	3%	21%	58%	18%
13	HALL Velma	-	-	1%	9%	43%	47%
14	ZHAO Aileen Y.	-	1%	8%	40%	41%	10%
15	HAYES Alyssa R.	3%	19%	40%	31%	6%	-
16	KANG Jiyoon	1%	14%	36%	34%	13%	1%
17	TAN Clarisse	-	-	5%	36%	46%	14%
18	KO Claire	-	7%	34%	42%	16%	1%	-
19	BAWA Sahana	-	1%	11%	38%	41%	9%	-
20	SHENG Chuxi	-	2%	18%	47%	30%	3%
21	SCHMIDT Victoria	1%	16%	48%	29%	5%	-
22	D'ORAZIO Sofia V.	6%	32%	39%	19%	3%	-
23	LEE Fiona E.	-	29%	46%	22%	3%
24	DRAGNE Alexis D.	-	5%	27%	49%	18%	2%
25	BURBERRY Livia	5%	31%	45%	18%	2%	-
26	BIODROWICZ Julia	1%	13%	35%	35%	14%	2%
26	PARK Leah	10%	43%	37%	9%	1%	-
28	ZHUANG Sophie	-	7%	34%	41%	16%	1%	-
29	YANG Lingting	-	26%	47%	24%	3%
30	HSIEH Rebecca	8%	32%	40%	18%	2%	-
31	SKOURLETOS Maria	10%	34%	38%	16%	2%	-
32	BONGADO Noreen	56%	35%	8%	1%	-	-
33	WIERENGA Esther	33%	47%	18%	1%	-	-
34	SCARLETT Skye	30%	44%	22%	4%	-	-
35	GRAY Martha R.	19%	55%	23%	3%	-	-
36	HSIEH Sabrina	59%	35%	6%	-	-	-
37	FOLIO Isabella	16%	44%	33%	6%	-	-
38	WESTFALL Iris	45%	44%	10%	1%	-	-	-
39	SOLOMIE Sabina	17%	46%	33%	4%	-	-
40	GUSKA Jenn	98%	2%	-	-	-
41	HOOGSTRA Lucy	61%	35%	4%	-	-	-
42	ZHAO Aimee	29%	52%	17%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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