Arnold Fencing Classic ROC (Div1A, Div 2, Vet), RJCC, and RYC

Div I-A Women's Foil

Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Ohio Expo Center - Kasich Hall - Columbus, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SENIC Adeline	-	-	-	2%	15%	43%	39%
2	ZHAO Sophie L.	-	-	-	4%	21%	43%	32%
3	DEBACK Greta I.	-	-	-	4%	21%	44%	31%
3	HALL Velma	-	-	1%	6%	26%	46%	21%
5	MASSICK Laine	-	-	3%	21%	48%	27%
6	NAMGALAURI Mariam	-	-	5%	20%	37%	30%	8%
7	LUO ZIWEN	-	-	1%	10%	31%	41%	17%
8	LI Shuang	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%	-
9	DE LA CRUZ Eden	-	-	1%	9%	30%	44%	16%
10	NEWHARD Zelia "Zizi"	-	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
11	TALAVERA Daena	-	-	2%	16%	46%	36%
12	BAWA Sahana	-	9%	31%	37%	18%	4%	-
13	KNIGHT Skylar	-	-	-	2%	13%	44%	40%
14	MEI Sarah	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	6%	-
15	ZHAO Aileen Y.	-	2%	11%	31%	37%	17%	2%
16	TAN Clarisse	-	1%	9%	28%	38%	21%	4%
17	POWERS Meredith R.	-	4%	19%	36%	29%	10%	1%
18	HAYES Alyssa R.	2%	16%	35%	32%	12%	2%	-
19	BOLES Sophia	-	3%	14%	34%	35%	13%	2%
20	SKOURLETOS Maria	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	2%	-
21	SARTORI Taylor M.	-	-	1%	10%	31%	42%	16%
22	LEE Fiona E.	1%	11%	30%	36%	19%	4%	-
23	OWEN Ashley	-	5%	20%	37%	29%	8%	1%
24	SHENG Chuxi	3%	15%	33%	32%	14%	2%	-
25	YANG Lingting	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
26	LEE Ariana	1%	14%	38%	36%	10%	1%
27	DRAGNE Alexis D.	2%	16%	40%	33%	9%	1%
28	BASSIK Eva	3%	33%	41%	19%	4%	-	-
29	BURBERRY Livia	18%	38%	31%	11%	2%	-	-
30	HSIEH Rebecca	7%	33%	38%	18%	4%	-	-
31	MAO Rebecca J.	-	7%	28%	38%	21%	5%	-
32	KANG Jiyoon	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%	-
33	KO Claire	7%	36%	38%	16%	3%	-	-
34	D'ORAZIO Sofia V.	10%	41%	37%	12%	1%	-
35	ROMANO Megan C.	55%	37%	8%	1%	-	-
36	HSIEH Sabrina	39%	42%	16%	3%	-	-	-
37	WIERENGA Esther	58%	34%	7%	1%	-	-	-
38	BASSIK Judith M.	2%	14%	34%	33%	14%	3%	-
39	DEMOSS Mercedes	6%	25%	37%	24%	8%	1%	-
40	WESTFALL Iris	80%	19%	2%	-	-	-	-
40	GUILLEN Mikaela	43%	41%	14%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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