Statistics Profile

Kieron McDarby

1990

Swords & Strategy Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1607	1260 - 1953	1554	2735
Épée	Direct elimination	1742	1039 - 2444	1461	1931
Saber	Pool	2060	1241 - 2878	2060	2060
Saber	Direct elimination	2042	707 - 3376	2042	2042

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.