Statistics Profile

Patrick Stoy

1975

Denver Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1595	1385 - 1804	1221	1652
Épée	Direct elimination	1879	1498 - 2259	1580	2020
Foil	Pool	1297	1115 - 1478	870	1500
Foil	Direct elimination	1299	1007 - 1590	1161	1871

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.