Statistics Profile

David Theriault

1952

Pittsburgh Fencers Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1954	1035 - 2872	1954	1954
Épée	Direct elimination	2303	837 - 3768	2303	2303
Foil	Pool	909	208 - 1609	909	909
Foil	Direct elimination	1696	500 - 2891	1696	1696

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.