Statistics Profile

Paul Geraci

1973

Indianapolis Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2466	2286 - 2645	2382	3304
Épée	Direct elimination	2751	2543 - 2958	2231	2791
Foil	Pool	1832	1511 - 2152	1832	2618
Foil	Direct elimination	2379	1878 - 2879	1910	2426
Saber	Pool	1493	903 - 2082	1493	2062
Saber	Direct elimination	1943	666 - 3219	1943	1943

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.