Statistics Profile

Michael Opferman

1973

Bethel Park Fencing Club Corsair Fencing School

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2142	1870 - 2413	2142	3586
Épée	Direct elimination	2306	1871 - 2740	2281	3069

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.