Statistics Profile

Herman Smith

1956

Cape Fear Fencing Association

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1819	1643 - 1994	1819	2566
Épée	Direct elimination	1924	1637 - 2210	1901	2700
Foil	Pool	1304	459 - 2148	1304	1304
Foil	Direct elimination	1730	491 - 2968	1730	1730

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.