Statistics Profile

Herman Smith

1956

Cape Fear Fencing Association

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1836	1658 - 2013	1836	2566
Épée	Direct elimination	1901	1603 - 2198	1901	2700
Foil	Pool	1302	458 - 2145	1302	1302
Foil	Direct elimination	1730	491 - 2968	1730	1730

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.