Statistics Profile

Michael Kelly

1959

Columbia Fencers' Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2455	2145 - 2764	2432	2826
Épée	Direct elimination	2071	1633 - 2508	1818	2210
Foil	Pool	1766	1250 - 2281	1766	2383
Foil	Direct elimination	1487	348 - 2625	1487	1487

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.