Statistics Profile

Robert McLay

1969

Forte Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1864	1021 - 2706	1864	1864
Épée	Direct elimination	2496	1236 - 3755	2496	2496
Saber	Pool	1579	932 - 2225	1579	1703
Saber	Direct elimination	1901	927 - 2874	1901	2079

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.