Statistics Profile

Derek Wilkinson

1976

On Target Fencing Team

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2373	2199 - 2546	2299	3124
Épée	Direct elimination	2720	2507 - 2932	2687	3413
Foil	Pool	1810	1312 - 2307	1810	2690
Foil	Direct elimination	2283	1472 - 3093	2213	2568

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.