Statistics Profile

John Marshall

1989

Two Ravens Fencing School

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2801	2591 - 3010	2801	3269
Épée	Direct elimination	2989	2719 - 3258	1967	3519
Saber	Pool	2343	1464 - 3221	2343	2979
Saber	Direct elimination	3192	2108 - 4275	2995	3192

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.