Statistics Profile

John Marshall

1989
Two Ravens Fencing School

Current strength

Weapon Type Strength Estimate Range* Min Max
Épée Pool 2904 2688 - 3119 2839 3269
Épée Direct elimination 3038 2764 - 3311 1967 3519
Saber Pool 2343 1464 - 3221 2343 2979
Saber Direct elimination 3192 2108 - 4275 2995 3192

* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

Matchup against me

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

How it works

  • Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
  • The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
  • New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
  • Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
  • The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
  • Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
  • Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
  • Per-bout changes are available in bout history.