Statistics Profile

Cathleen Coyle Randall

1964

Forge Fencing Teams DUR

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1678	1473 - 1882	1452	2101
Foil	Direct elimination	2065	1716 - 2413	1971	2396
Saber	Pool	1846	1676 - 2015	1606	2453
Saber	Direct elimination	2176	1962 - 2389	2079	2771

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.