Statistics Profile

Matthew Nikols

1968

Valkyrie Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1014	305 - 1722	1014	1014
Épée	Direct elimination	1711	506 - 2915	1711	1711
Foil	Pool	1048	526 - 1569	1048	1122
Foil	Direct elimination	1514	466 - 2561	1514	1723

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.