Statistics Profile

Jan Patterson

1947

Salle Auriol Seattle

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1177	380 - 1973	1177	1177
Épée	Direct elimination	2241	836 - 3645	2241	2241
Foil	Pool	2097	1922 - 2271	2097	3408
Foil	Direct elimination	2627	2395 - 2858	2627	4084

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.