Statistics Profile

Heidi Runyan

1955

Spartak

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1620	845 - 2394	1620	1620
Foil	Direct elimination	2717	1265 - 4168	2717	2717
Saber	Pool	2800	2562 - 3037	1830	2965
Saber	Direct elimination	2979	2727 - 3230	2303	3182

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.