Statistics Profile

Mark Ballard

1953

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2730	2313 - 3146	2699	3398
Épée	Direct elimination	2674	2102 - 3245	2674	3018
Foil	Pool	2685	1963 - 3406	2685	2685
Foil	Direct elimination	2342	1332 - 3351	2342	2342

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.