Statistics Profile

Stephen Pashby

1978

Forge Fencing Teams DUR

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2066	959 - 3172	2066	2066
Épée	Direct elimination	2006	717 - 3294	2006	2006
Foil	Pool	2258	2067 - 2448	2031	2551
Foil	Direct elimination	2652	2411 - 2892	1787	2835
Saber	Pool	2307	2031 - 2582	2307	2727
Saber	Direct elimination	2469	2015 - 2922	2079	2857

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.